This weekends storm system is the HUGE talk right now on the local weather sites and blogs. I'm here to down play all of that. I know, It is weird for me to do such thing but I think the computer models are just straight up liars, sometimes :)! You have to decide what really is fact or fiction!
I want to explain to you my reasoning on why I think the way I think below.
Below are the GFS and NAM solutions with this system. (Click image to enlarge)
Both solutions are quite similar. Notice the NAM is holding to a much slower solution while the GFS is somewhat faster. Yesterday when I showed the computer models, the GFS has the low pressure moving into the northeast for the weekend creating a MONSTER blizzard. Both solutions are now starting to be more mature about the situation. Still the NAM is showing somewhat of a weaker system than the GFS.
The Canadian and Euro models are way different! Both models are showing the low pressure over Alabama and Mississippi but the Euro plays the system way south! All computer models are showing this system pushing over Texas. Once this system moves into the Texas area, we should have an exact handle on where this low pressure will move.
So what does this mean?
Each computer model is basically playing this system out all in different ways. It's my job to determine exactly what is going to happen. I think based on the evidence, models are beginning to somewhat come together BUT the more accurate returns will not show until the new runs later tonight and tomorrow morning.
NAM & GFS solutions bring snow into portions of the area. BUT the NAM shows a sharp cut off on precipitation. Where will the sharp cut off be? It's still early to tell exactly where. I think this is a situation where Louisville and Southern Indiana could see nothing and Central Kentucky may see several inches of snowfall. This is a system to watch for sure!
I think Indiana will be less impacted by this storm system. Kentucky needs to monitor this system very carefully over the 24-48 hours for the ever changing computer model data. I hate to post it but I will, below are the forecasted snowfall totals from both the NAM & GFS.
Throw the NAM solutions away right now. The previous run was similar to the current GFS run. I do not agree with the overplay in snowfall totals. I think this is not what will pan out with this system. The only reason I wanted to post this is to let you know, this solution is JUNK. Throw it away and never look at it again!
My Thoughts...
Let's look at the reality of things first. Computer models are computer models. They are a guide for us forecasters to give you a forecast. I do not have to go with any of these models to really give you a forecast. With this scenario, I'm going with my gut. I think most areas will have rain start out and quickly change to snow during the evening hours on Saturday. There is going to be a strong cut off on the precipitation. I think it should be somewhere north of south of the river. I will fine tune this tomorrow. There is a potential of 3"+ in portions of Kentucky. This is the far I will go on totals right now. Let's wait for the latest 0z data to come in this evening for the latest. I wouldn't be surprised to see Winter Storm Watches out for portions of the Ohio Valley tomorrow.
FYI... I will be at WDRB tomorrow with Jude Redfield. You can follow him on Facebook by clicking the link below.
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Questions or Comments?
Email me at chrisallenphillips@me.com
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