Latest Thoughts on Severe Risk for Today

I'm finally back from several days of being busy with school and work! What an active weather pattern we have over the next several weeks. Some computer models are hinting at a major winter storm next week. Could that happen?? I doubt it but it's something to watch.

Let's discuss the possibility of severe for today....

The new SPC update has a SLIGHT risk of severe weather for the entire as shown below.

Here are the detailed maps explaning what to expect in categories from the SPC.

Tornado Risk. Notice we are in the 5% (low-end) risk for tornadoes.

Hail Risk. We are in the lower end of the hail risk as well.

Wind Risk. Same as the other risk, low end, 15%.

So let's examin this...
To have a severe weather risk that is great you must have lift, shear and instability. Without all three of these ingredents, the situation is normally minimum.

With looking over some of the new computer model runs tonight, I can see why the SPC has made some adjustment on the new forecast. This is interesting, computer models are showing a little more instability than what was first thought. If we see any sun during the day today, this will help fuel the fire for thunderstorms. 

Dew points are my friend when it comes to forecasting severe weather. Severe weather in the Ohio Valley is tough to forecast and *MOST* times, without instability or fuel for storms, the threat of severe weather is limited. Below are the current Dew Points...

Notice how the NAM brings dew points tomorrow in the mid 50's. This would be somewhat sufficient for severe weather.

Winds a mile up from the ground will be great enough to support severe weather! Below is the NAM 850mb winds. Notice winds near 50 knots. 

Putting it all together...

We have STRONG forcing, temperatures are going to drop behind this front. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 60s and fall into the 30s during the night! Instability is somewhat there, examined on the models. We will need to watch latest trends during the day today for adjustments on instability. Winds are there as well.

The tornado threat is somewhat there. In these types of situations you cannot rule out an isolated spin-up. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threat with any thunderstorms. I agree with the new placement for the SPC on the severe weather risk. 

I will be here all day today along with the entire WeatherPulse Storm Team and will update as needed. Make sure to follow us on Facebook. 

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