Severe Storm are the Talk!

We discussed the possibility of severe early this morning and now the SPC has decided to increase the risk of severe for our area even more. The latest update from the SPC now has us on the border line of a moderate risk of severe weather. We MAY be upgraded IF this look like they will begin to materialize. Let's dive in...

Here are the current updated numbers from the SPC.

Tornado Risk. Notice we've been upgraded in the 10% category.

Hail Risk. This risk pretty much stayed the same this morning.

Damaging Wind Risk. This has been upgraded as well.

Lets get into detail... First, Instability is the number one thing to judge on whether severe weather will exist. Latest NAM data has lowered our instability quite a bit. Last night CAPE values were approaching 1000. Now NAM has values around 500.

To produce a significant severe event, I like to see CAPE values around or over 1000 units. NAM still brings dew points over 55 into the forecast area, as shown below.

Short term computer models are showing a surge of 60 degree dew points moving into portions of Kentucky later this afternoon into the evening. This is a trend I will watch carefully. I will be watching cloud cover very closely as well. Latest Sat image is showing clearing in Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. This would help increase our instability. 

Winds aloft will be sufficient for severe weather. The thing which concerns me is the strong shear computer models are showing. Notice the winds a mile above the ground are coming from the south.

Now, Notice 18,000 feet up into the atmosphere winds are moving in an completely different direction.

What's my thoughts..

I think with looking at the latest trends, models are starting to lean to a higher dew point which would result for more fuel for storms to work on. Looking at latest conditions, clearing should begin to move into our area around midday and push to the east. Temperatures should increase rapidly. Temperatures are now in the 60s in Western Kentucky and Dew points are now in the 60s as well. Instability is the only question on this system, I think it's starting to become less of a question now. I think the SPC will upgrade our area in a MODERATE RISK of severe weather on the midday update. Below I have posted my area of enhanced severe weather were tornadoes, damaging winds and hail will exist. Make sure to have your severe weather plan ready for this afternoon and evening. Storms should begin to the west around 4pm and push through before 10pm ET. Make sure to continue to check back for update.

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