Latest Update On Severe

A complex storm system will be moving through the forecast area over the next 24 - 36 hours. The Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate risk of severe weather for the day tomorrow into tomorrow evening. Let's dive into the details on exactly whats going to happen. I will post what I think and our severe weather analyst Andy Henry will give us his feedback.


This is the new SPC forecast.

Let's dive more into what this forecast really means. Notice winds a mile up above the ground. We have seen stronger winds than this before. For example, Wednesday's storm system has winds of 50-60 knots. Now notice winds are between 45-55 knots. Not as strong as the other day but still strong enough. Another thing to look at is the wind direction. Notice how wins are coming from the southwest.

Let's look further up into the atmosphere to see if the winds will be turning. Notice at 500mb winds are moving southwest as well. This is not showing as much direction shear as the models did this morning.

Below is a look at CAPE values for tomorrow. One thing to note, models could be going a bit to strong on these values. If any morning shower and thunderstorm activity develops, this would work the atmosphere. I think models are big a bit to aggressive on the instability. I think shower and thunderstorm activity will develop and clouds could be a struggle to get out of the region.

So, What do I think?

I think everyone is getting a little out of hand with the model data and needs to take it for what it is worth. It's just data! When reality happens tomorrow, I could be right or the other one could be right but I'm basically showing you how I see it. Below is where I think the best threat of severe weather will be.

The best chance for severe weather will be over portions of southern Kentucky and portions of Tennessee.  During the afternoon, I cannot rule out a tornado threat for the entire portions of the area with any individual cells that do develop. When the line moves through the area during the evening hours, I think the more violent storms and tornados will be in southern portions of Kentucky. EVERYONE WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERE TOMORROW but the main action will be south of the Ohio River.

Andy's Thoughts

Let me first start by stating that there are lots of people out there already beginning to hype this thing up.  People are going as far as too compare it to the '74 outbreak.  Honestly, a lot of folks don't have pleasant memories of that event and putting the fear out there is no way to go about this.  The conditions look to be favorable for severe weather.  Lets take a closer look into the word favorable....favorable is by no means a certainty.  We have been several times under tornado watches which means conditions are favorable for tornadoes, but yet we have seen no tornadoes.  That are a handful of variables that could change what actually occurs.  Any showers or storms that do occur early on in the day (first wave/warm front) WILL have an effect on our severe chances.  The storms and cloud cover could possibly hinder the possibility of severe weather developing to the extent that they are all calling for.  It is one thing to just see that SPC has issued a moderate risk and run with it, but what i encourage all of our weather team to do, and everyone out there at that, is to dive into the data or the info, do research, do some homework, and use what you know to form your own opinions and see where it takes you.  All in all, we do stand to see some severe weather out of this event.  Things will change, new datas will come in, and maps, and predictions and forecasts will be shifted....thats how it works.  Things quite certainly do look like they could get interesting, but we just need to follow it close.  Higher CAPE values not advecting as far north as they are saying, cloud cover, early day showers and storms are all factors that need to be watched closely.  I am thinking that the main event will consist of one maybe 2 severe line segments with some damaging straight line winds possible.  The tornado threat will certainly be there.  We will certainly be here with the latest as it gets closer and we fine tune everything.  However do expect some severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.