5/31/12 Severe Weather Event

Hey everyone, this is Cody, I will be taking over the blog and posting warning information and radar images as storms begin to fire later today. Stay tuned here at the blog and on our Facebook page for the lastest updates on what is going on with the weather around the region! Stay updated and stay safe everyone!




4:55pm Update

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  HANCOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
  PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
* UNTIL 415 PM CDT
* AT 346 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES WEST OF ADYEVILLE TO 9
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAITMAN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  HAWESVILLE...
  TELL CITY...
  LEWISPORT...
  PELLVILLE...
  WEBERSTOWN AND ROSEVILLE...
  ADYEVILLE AND FENN HAVEN...

4:15pm Update

It is looking like the dry air is keeping most storms from becoming too strong or severe. But don't let your guard down as the possibility of seeing a few severe storms is still there.

3:45pm Update

The area inside the blue box is under the Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10:00pm EDT.

Here are the probabilities of the types of severe weather we could see today.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (20%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (<5%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)

and here is the discussion from the SPC:

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

 DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
   INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF AN MCV MOVING ACROSS SRN IL.  WITH
   TEMPERATURES WARMING THE LOW/MID 80S AND DEW POINTS INCREASING INT
   HE 55-64 RANGE...THE AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING WITH CAPE TO 1000
   J/KG.  DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...STRONGER
   WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE DEVELOP
   OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL.


3:35pm Update

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the area until 10:00pm EDT. More info will be available in a few minutes.

3:15pm Radar Update

A line of non-severe showers and storms are currently crossing over the border into Indiana.

3:15pm Update


The SPC has put out a Mesoscale Discussion for the entire region stating that there is a possibility of some type of weather watch later this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity has increased a long a line of showers and storms along the IL/IN border and a few may be able to become severe. Dry air is in place right now which will limit the amount of severe weather we will see today, but if the atmosphere can moisten up a bit before the line of storms can get into the region the chances for severe weather could go up.