Detailed Information on Storms Today

The SPC has updated their forecast and have thrown in a small tornado risk for later this afternoon and into this evening. Below are the updated numbers.

The main threats out of any of these storms will be damaging winds, some hail, heavy rainfall and a slight chance for a spin-up. Below is what the SPC currently says:

MASS RESPONSE TO ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN A
   SWLY 20-30 KT LLJ ACROSS THE REGION...ENHANCING THE NEWD FLUX OF AN
   INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS.  WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONGER DIABATIC
   WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO S OF DENSER CLOUD CANOPY...ENVIRONMENT
   IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
   APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.  CONVERGENCE INVOF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE
   LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...YIELDING AN INCREASE IN TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
   INITIALLY FROM SRN IL INTO IND.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO
   THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...IN TANDEM WITH
   THE SURFACE LOW.
   
   THE COLLOCATION OF 45-55 KT FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS AND THE LLJ WILL
   RESULT IN A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR.  WHEN COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...SETUP WILL
   SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS STORM MODES WITH AN
   ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
   TORNADO.  EXPECT THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF OH/PA/WV/KY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EWD-MOVING
   MCS.

Below is the latest forecast from the NWS in Louisville: 

Given this moisture, wet bulb zeroes are much higher than the last
couple of events, thus think any hail that forms likely will be
below severe limits. Winds aloft are stronger though. Have a 30-kt
low-level jet at 925 mb by late afternoon, which should cause some
gusty winds this afternoon as heating mixes some of that wind down.
Think gusty winds and heavy rain will be the main threats from
today`s storms, as 0-6 km shear will be 40-50 kts and because of
that high pw air mentioned above.

Let's dive into the data and dissect this forecast. Below is the CAPE units for this afternoon. 

NAM is showing sufficient CAPE values this afternoon/evening over the entire area. Values above 1,000 are prime for producing severe weather in our area.

Low level jet will be somewhat strong this afternoon and mid level winds will be strong as well. Storms will be able to tap into this wind energy this afternoon and be able to produce some damaging wind gusts.

Models are showing thunderstorm activity developing after 7:00pm this evening in the western portions of the area and moving into the heart of the viewing area between 9-10pm. Models are hinting a bow segments by the time this moves into the Louisville metro area. 

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