With the warm air and a chance for thunderstorms moving into the weekends comes the question, Will there be severe weather? I have looked over the latest computer model data for the weekend storm system and I will explain everything in detail below.
This system is going to bring the rain. HEAVY RAIN! Some places my see anywhere from 1-2" of rainfall for the entire area. Rain should begin on the day Saturday and continue through Sunday. With the possibility comes the fact of instability. Will we see sun with the steady heavy rainfall?
The answer is NO. This is a look at the lift index and the values are low. This is something we look at for the possibility of severe weather
Several systems this year that have move through the area have had BEARISH upper winds! With this system, the winds are puny!! Models are showing at MOST 40-50 knots. That's nothing! With this weaker winds at 850mb, the storms have to push higher in the atmosphere to get stronger winds, with the low instability, that's not likely.
What's Chris Think?
Making this short and sweet... The best chance for any organized severe weather will be over portions of the south. With the somewhat decent wind energy in place, I cannot rule out a strong thunderstorm but the main story with this upcoming system will be heavy rainfall.
Groundhog's day is tomorrow! Out of his 115 predictions, 99 of them have been 6 more weeks of winter! It must be all of those darn cameras! Enjoy yourself watching him see or not see his shadow!
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